Will a late Samsung Galaxy S II launch limit U.S. sales?

Samsung’s hottest new smartphone, the Galaxy S II (SGS2), is finally headed to the U.S. market. The handset was introduced last night at a press event, with similar models for three of the four largest carriers in the country: AT&T, Sprint and T-Mobile. Verizon chose to pass on this particular device, likely because it only offers 4G service on HSPA and WiMAX networks, not LTE, which is what Verizon offers.

The SGS2 has already earned the title of Samsung’s fastest selling smartphone with 5 million sales in its first 85 days of availability in Europe and Asia. I have little doubt that it will continue to sell well in the U.S., but perhaps not as well as it might have sold if it were launched earlier: The next one to three months are going to offer many solid smartphone choices.

I took a very informal poll on Twitter after the Samsung press event last night, and while my sample size is certainly small, there’s a common theme in every single response I received: The window of opportunity for a guaranteed SGS2 sale has closed. Why? People — admittedly, high-end smartphone loving geeks, based on the makeup of my Twitter followers — feel the SGS2 launch is too close to the next iPhone and a new Nexus flagship phone that is expected to highlight the Ice Cream Sandwich (ICS) version of Android.

Here’s a sampling of the responses:

While it may appear that I’ve culled out responses that only fit my thesis, I didn’t: Not a single responder said they would be buying the SGS2. Does that mean the Galaxy S II won’t sell? Of course not: Given the solid reviews of this phone, it’s a top-notch handset and will surely appeal to many. However, if the phone were launched sooner in the U.S., perhaps to correspond with the European launch, those 5 million sales in 85 days might have easily been 8 to 10 million sales over the same time period.

There’s always a newer, shinier object around the corner when it comes to technology, so even an earlier launched GS2 would have eventually shined less at some point. The problem with a later launch is that the time to wait for the next new piece of technology is close enough that consumers are rethinking their purchase decisions. Had the SGS2 arrived three months ago, I know I would have bought it on the first day of availability. Now there’s simply too many potentially comparable, or perhaps better, choices coming soon. And hardware isn’t the only influence here: After using the iOS 5 beta for several weeks, Apple has addressed some of the reasons I moved to Android in the first place.

Sprint is the first carrier to begin offering Samsung’s new handset, which becomes available on Sept. 16; neither AT&T nor T-Mobile have shared availability, and instead have said the handset will be here in the “coming weeks.” Not long after that time period, it’s a sure bet consumers will also have a new iPhone, possibly a flagship Nexus handset and even a few new Microsoft Windows Phone 7 devices with the impressive Mango software update to choose from.

While it’s difficult to stay ahead of the fast-paced, ever-changing smartphone technology curve — now a 6-9 month cycle — Samsung should have launched the SGS2 sooner, rather than later, in the U.S.

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Pre-paid, wholesale subs keep Sprint afloat ahead of LTE

Sprint announced Thursday it gained 1.1 million subscribers in the second quarter in addition to its lowest churn rates ever for both pre- and post-paid customers. That good news on the customer side was offset by another quarterly financial loss: The no. 3 carrier in the U.S. experienced a net loss of $847 million on $8.3 billion in revenues. Sprint did report higher overall average revenues per user as more consumers added 3G and 4G data plans, but it still lost money due to its mix of customers.

In a statement today, Sprint CEO Dan Hesse focused on the positives:

Sprint’s second quarter results, including our fourteenth consecutive quarter of improved customer care satisfaction, our best ever postpaid churn, more than 1 million net wireless subscriber additions and wireless service revenue growth, validate that our focus on providing simplicity, value and an unmatched customer experience is working.

Hesse’s statement is correct and factual, but unfortunately, overlooks other facts contributing to Sprint’s current challenge. Although the company gained 1.1 million net subscribers adds, net post-paid consumers declined by 101,000. That means the bulk of the new customers would be from less profitable segments. Indeed, 519,000 of the new subscribers are wholesale or affiliate customers, while 674,000 were added through pre-paid channels. That’s a problem, because ARPU on the pre-paid side actually declined slightly to $28.

Part of the issue here for the more lucrative post-paid side could be due to Sprint’s choice of 4G technologies. Sprint initially opted for a WiMAX network it opened for business in October 2008, but the speeds are getting leapfrogged by LTE and HSPA+ networks from competitors. Sprint is now turning to LightSquared’s spectrum, and bank account, to build out an LTE network. As a result of the deal, also announced today, Sprint will receive $9 billion over the next 11 years from LightSquared, and will be able to offer competitive speeds and coverage as its grand WiMAX experiment comes to an unprofitable close.

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3 reasons the Nexus S is coming to AT&T: N, F and C

Google is bringing the Samsung Nexus S smartphone to AT&T’s network on July 24, for $99 with a two-year contract. Until now, the Google-designed handset was only available in the U.S. for T-Mobile and Sprint. Google says that Best Buy will sell the phone this Sunday, but it can be preordered today at Best Buy’s website and in stores. The Samsung Nexus S doesn’t have the latest and greatest hardware, but it does have several unique features, including support for wireless payments through an integrated near-field communications (NFC) chip.

As the owner of a Google Nexus One handset since launch day, I considered upgrading to the Nexus S when it debuted in December. Google stayed with a 1 GHz single-core processor and 800×480 resolution screen, so I decided to pass. However, Samsung’s Super AMOLED display is a nice upgrade, with bolder, vivid colors and better outdoor viewing. The same screen technology is used on the AT&T Infuse 4G that I recently showed off on video. The Nexus S was also one of the first Android handsets to gain a front-facing camera, which can now be used for Google Talk video chat. And because it’s a Nexus phone, the handset is easier to root and install custom software, plus it should see Android updates faster than other phones.

But I think the real reason for the Nexus S appearing with support for AT&T is the NFC chip inside. In May, Google announced its Wallet service, a method to pay for goods by tapping a smartphone on a payment terminal. NFC payments have long been promised but haven’t yet been delivered in the U.S., and Google Wallet sounds like it has all the right pieces in place. Except there’s currently only one handset on one carrier that supports it, and that carrier is No. 3, Sprint, which has the Nexus S 4G.

At the Wallet launch, Google said it planned to expand support to more phones, and I suspect the Nexus S for AT&T is the next Wallet-capable handset. For $99 on a much larger carrier, Google can increase the Wallet user base much more quickly than it can through Sprint. Of course, releasing an AT&T version of the Nexus S only adds more potential to Google Wallet. But it doesn’t guarantee a large uptake for one key reason: Compared to the latest and greatest handsets with speedy dual-core processors, the Nexus S is already looking long in the tooth.

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